Here at Schiste Towers we have the distinct feeling that fracking ( or at least the 'assessment of likely resources' ) seems more and more likely with every passing day.
a. Notwithstanding President Hollande's pledge to uphold the current ban (loi Jacob July 2011), his Environment Minister Ségolene Royal recently changed her stance declaring that she might not remain finally opposed.
b. The ambiguity of Brussels on the matter.
c. The fact that Germany now seems certain to proceed as a consequence of their need to balance nuclear policy.
d. The strong possibility that if a UMP government is returned to power they will have little trouble in reversing their own anti-fracking law ( passed under duress and after severe dilution ).
Several other factors conspire. Not least pressure from the likes of Athémis France who hold 19 permits to drill en France but which of course are on hold due to the loi Jacob. They must obtain renewal by 30th September and this would then extend their validty for a further five years.
Perhaps the looming disaster in the UK will be well reported and French politicians take stock.