A primer on the rapid decline in production of fracked oil - and gas.

" Back to the question of whether hydraulic fracturing could help export energy from the US. Sounds fine except for the small matter of  - depletion.

Fracked wells age very quickly. The initial production is very high and so is the rate of depletion. The point is, a newly fracked well may produce 1,000 barrels per day, but this falls by sixty per cent the next year, thirty five by the third and fifteen per cent by the fourth. Oil/gas companies should replace forty to forty five percent of the current production each year to maintain/increase production. For now at least, the number of wells and cost of production can keep pace with profits because of the higher oil prices. But what happens when the price comes down? The depletion rates will make the wells non-viable and the search for new supplies will continue elsewhere. Roughly, the US ( for example ) will need more than 9,000 wells at more than $50 billion to counterbalance the declines.

The number of operating wells in the US has been increasing rapidly while the corresponding productivity ( considering all the wells in the US ) has declined. There are about 9,000 wells in North Dakota ( analysts expect the number to go up to 50,000 by 2030 ). The state produced more than 800,000 barrels of oil per day in May, a new record. This averages 89 b/d from each well in N.Dakota, hence the need to constantly add new wells in order to maintain a sustainable level of output. The parallel implication for fracked gas is clear. Ed.

Also, in the case of Bakken, the wells are cheaper compared to the deepwater offshore wells but cost three times those of conventional wells. This is because the wells must be drilled vertically for a distance of nearly two miles, then angled to hroizontal like the branches of a tree to more than three miles......................."

Thank you for this piece to our contributor 'Bob'. Ed. 

Read the full article by clicking the link below....................

http://www.oil-price.net/en/articles/shale-high-depletion-rates-in-bakken.php

Bakken's high depletion rates means more drilling, more often. Shale: High depletion rates in Bakken By STEVE AUSTIN for OIL-PRICE.NET, 2013/09/04 If you can, you could term it delusion, the theory that Shale gas is the answer to all problems in terms of energy. Just extract the gas, ship it across the pipeline and export the excess, or so goes the popular theory (boom. How easy!). Let's call this 'Sale for Energy Security Theory' or SEST) If you believe in SEST, here's a simple task for you: Take a towel or cloth soaked in water. Wring it. Note the amount of water that comes out. Now, wring it again. Okay, once more. How many drops of water did you get in the third time? Two, three? This is precisely what's happening in the Bakken. Imagine that there aren't buckets of oil underneath the Bakken but towels soaked with oil. And it is only recently that we figured out the technique called "fracking": how to wring a towel full of oil. The first time oil companies twist the towel, a stream of oil comes dripping out. Success! Then second time around, surprise: just a few drops, and the third time and subsequent times... nothing. This is what high depletion rates mean and this is what is happening.

Bakken's high depletion rates means more drilling, more often. And this is precisely what will happen with fracked gas. More derricks, more trucks, more noise, more airborne methane and more toxic chemicals pumped into the ground.

Shale: High depletion rates in Bakken By STEVE AUSTIN for OIL-PRICE.NET, 2013/09/04

If you can, you could term it delusion, the theory that Shale gas is the answer to all problems in terms of energy. Just extract the gas, ship it across the pipeline and export the excess, or so goes the popular theory (boom. How easy!). Let's call this 'Sale for Energy Security Theory' or SEST)
If you believe in SEST, here's a simple task for you: Take a towel or cloth soaked in water. Wring it. Note the amount of water that comes out. Now, wring it again. Okay, once more. How many drops of water did you get in the third time? Two, three? This is precisely what's happening in the Bakken. Imagine that there aren't buckets of oil underneath the Bakken but towels soaked with oil. And it is only recently that we figured out the technique called "fracking": how to wring a towel full of oil. The first time oil companies twist the towel, a stream of oil comes dripping out. Success! Then second time around, surprise: just a few drops, and the third time and subsequent times... nothing. This is what high depletion rates mean and this is what is happening.